The New York City Mayoral Race: A Data Deep Dive in Five Maps and Charts 📊

The 2025 New York City Mayoral Election is a political contest unlike any other in the city’s recent history.⁵ It pits a surging democratic socialist against a political giant staging an independent comeback.⁶ Furthermore, the race is defined less by party lines and more by generational and ideological fault lines. To truly understand the momentum, the deep divides, and the likely outcome, it is essential to analyze the data. Consequently, we break down the fierce competition between Zohran Mamdani, Andrew Cuomo, and Curtis Sliwa using five critical textual charts and maps.⁷ Mayoral Race

Chart 1: The General Election Head-to-Head (Polling Snapshot) Mayoral Race

The most recent polling data confirms that Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee, maintains a decisive lead.⁸ This lead has held firm throughout the general election campaign. However, the race against Andrew Cuomo, running on an independent line, shows a persistent level of support for the former Governor. The numbers reveal that the anti-Mamdani vote is split. This fragmentation ultimately benefits the frontrunner. Mayoral Race

Analysis:

Mamdani’s advantage rests on two factors.⁹ First, he has successfully consolidated the Democratic base. He holds a commanding lead among registered Democrats.¹⁰ Second, the opposition remains fractured. The combined support for Cuomo and Sliwa (around 46%) rivals Mamdani’s total. However, the city’s simple plurality voting system means Mamdani can win easily without securing a majority. Furthermore, Cuomo’s significantly high unfavorable rating acts as a major ceiling on his comeback hopes. This is a crucial point. The data indicates that many anti-Mamdani voters will not migrate to Cuomo. This lack of consolidation ensures the socialist remains the clear favorite. Mayoral Race

Chart 2: The Ideological Divide (Policy Support vs. Candidate Support) Mayoral Race

Mamdani’s victory hinges on voters prioritizing his authenticity over their agreement with his most progressive policies.¹¹ The data reveals a striking dissonance. Voters are prepared to elect the socialist. Yet, they remain hesitant about his revolutionary agenda.

Analysis:

The overwhelming support for taxing the rich provides the financial backbone for Mamdani’s vision.¹² This tax is backed by a majority of even Cuomo voters. Therefore, this specific proposal is widely popular. However, New Yorkers are historically centrist on public safety. They express a strong desire for stricter measures. They favor repealing the state’s controversial bail reform law. This puts Mamdani in a complex position. He ran on a progressive platform. He has since moderated his stance on defunding the police. Ultimately, the outcome suggests a pragmatic compromise by the voters. They want Mamdani’s economic justice. They do not necessarily want his entire progressive platform. Mayoral Race

Map 3: The Generational and Racial Coalition (Mamdani’s Base)

Mamdani’s success is built upon a decisive coalition of young voters and minority groups.¹³ This support is geographically concentrated in key progressive areas. It demonstrates a shift in the Democratic Party’s energy.¹⁴

Map Interpretation (The Political Geography):

Mamdani’s strength is highest in Queens and progressive pockets of Brooklyn and Manhattan. Specifically, his home district in Astoria, Queens, remains a socialist stronghold. The support in areas with large Asian and South Asian populations is particularly pronounced. Conversely, Cuomo’s support is strongest in Jewish communities and older, more established neighborhoods.¹⁵ Therefore, the race visually maps onto a stark generational and ideological divide. Younger voters are motivated by climate change and housing scarcity. Older voters are motivated by traditional concerns like safety and stability.

Chart 4: The Voter Enthusiasm Divide Mayoral Race

The true engine of the Mamdani campaign is voter enthusiasm. This metric often predicts higher turnout, especially among non-traditional voters. The energy gap between Mamdani’s supporters and his opponents’ supporters is significant.

Analysis:

The data is clear. Mamdani has successfully galvanized his base. His supporters show the highest level of enthusiasm. They are also the most committed to their choice. This high energy is what delivered his upset victory in the Democratic primary. Furthermore, the campaign hopes this enthusiasm will counteract the city’s overall low voter turnout (historically around 46% for mayoral elections). The low enthusiasm among Cuomo’s supporters suggests that many backing the former Governor are doing so reluctantly or out of fear of Mamdani’s agenda.

Map 5: The Primary Election Upset (The Foundation of the Lead)

Mamdani’s current frontrunner status is built entirely on his stunning upset in the June Democratic primary.¹⁶ This result fundamentally reshaped the general election field.

Map Interpretation (The Primary):

The primary map shows that Mamdani’s strength originated in Queens and parts of The Bronx. However, his win in the final ranked-choice round relied on transfers from moderate and center-left candidates. This means his victory was not purely ideological. It was instead a coalition of anti-establishment sentiment. This coalition successfully defeated the most experienced politician in the race. The primary result proved that the city’s political machine no longer dictates the outcome. It set the tone for the general election. The political earthquake that started in June now promises to culminate in a socialist mayoralty in November. Mayoral Race

A City at a Crossroads Mayoral Race

The data confirms that Zohran Mamdani is poised to become the next Mayor of New York City.¹⁷ His lead is consistent. His base is highly energized. Nevertheless, his margin of victory will be a mandate for compromise. Voters demand a tax on the wealthy.¹⁸ They also demand practical solutions to crime and housing.¹⁹ The next few years will test Mamdani’s ability to govern. He must balance his socialist vision with the city’s vast, complex financial realities. Ultimately, this election represents a powerful pivot. It shows New Yorkers choosing bold, authentic, and progressive leadership. They have rejected the politics of the past. The world watches to see if this shift can truly deliver on its promise of an affordable, more equitable republic Mayoral Race

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